Platinum Outlook - Turning Insight into Advantage - Aum Thakkar

diyakaravdra
5 days ago
3 min read

1. Market Overview

• Platinum has seen a major price rally in 2025, up nearly 50-60% year-to-date.

• Geopolitical and production risks add to upside potential: Production in South Africa, which supplies ~70% of global platinum, faces infrastructure, labour, and weather issues.

2. Technical View

Trend: Bullish, as the price breakout suggests structural support is now more respected than the past rangebound regime.

Support/Resistance Levels: Support is likely around the ~$1,000-$1,400 USD/ounce region, depending on contract, given cost-structure and risk of production costs. Whereas resistance could be reached near $1,600$1,700/oz if momentum continues.

Signals To Watch:

• Mine output reports from South Africa and Russia.

• Recycling volumes for scrap platinum, which are currently weak.

• Investment flows (ETF/coin/bar demand) moving into platinum.

• Jewellery fabrication data in China and India.

• Macro risk and inflation and currency effects, given platinum as a precious metal hedge.

3. Government and Industry Actions/Policy Moves

• The WPIC and other industry commentators highlight that new supply for platinum is unlikely without significantly higher prices, due to the nature of deep underground mines and large capex needs.

• Trade and tariff risks remain high, as U.S proposed auto tariffs could hit platinum demand, as they are automotive catalytic converters, and thereby create downside risk for demand.

4. Fundamentals

Aspect:	Current Take:
Demand	Global demand may drop in some sectors, particularly the industrial/automated sides, but jewellery and investment segments are still very strong
Supply	Mine production is falling, and recycling is currently weak, so net supply is still being squeezed.
Deficits	Annual deficits forecast to average ~620,000-700,000 ounces from 2025-29f, i.e., ~8-9% of demand.
Risks	High prices may supress demand, Electric Vehicle (EV) transitions may reduce future demand for catalytic uses, forming a macro risk.

5. Forecast (next 12-36 months)

Base Case: If structural deficit continues then the price may average in the $1,400-$1,700/oz band for the year 2026, with some upsides.

Bull Case: If supply drops significantly and recycling lags, then demand from hydrogen or green tech accelerates directly, platinum could therefore move towards $2,000+ within the next 2-3 years.

Bear Case: If EV adoption accelerates, reducing demand for catalytic converts, or macro weakness hits the jewellery or the investment demand, then platinum could retreat to $1,000-$1,200/oz for this case.

6. Risks

• Jewellery demand is slowing down, particularly if prices become too high for consumers.

• Recycling unexpectedly increases, adding supply pressures.

• Trade, tariff actions, and other policy changes that hurt the auto or industrial sectors.

7. What To Track Every Week

• Mine production data from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia.

• Weekly and monthly investment demand flows into platinum through ETF/coins.

• Jewellery fabrication and import/export data, especially in China and India.

• Recycling volumes and scrap platinum prices.

• Major discovery/expansion announcements in PGM mines.

References

Hook, L. and Hodgson, C. (2025). Anglo American’s $11bn platinum spin-off makes London market debut. [online] @FinancialTimes. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/1b0b1999-eb2d-48b6-b602b96eaa8c4b08

Nasdaq.com. (2025). WPIC: Platinum to Record Third Annual Deficit as Supply Fails to Meet Demand. [online] Available at: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wpic-platinum-record-third-annual-deficit-supply-fails-meetdemand

investingnews.com. (n.d.). Platinum Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Affect Platinum in 2023. [online] Available at: https://investingnews.com/platinum-forecast/.

Nasdaq.com. (2025b). WPIC: Platinum to Record Third Annual Deficit as Supply Fails to Meet Demand. [online] Available at: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wpic-platinum-record-third-annual-deficit-supply-fails-meetdemand

@CMEGroup. (2025). Platinum Soars 50% as Investors Diversify Portfolios, Hedge Inflation - CME Group. [online] Available at: https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2025/platinum-soars-50percent-as-investors-diversify-portfolios-hedge-inflation.html